Sunday, July 16, 2006

Sun Poll - Good analysis

The Sun released a new poll on the gubernatorial race (the first since last November) which found that O'Malley leads Ehrlich 46 percent to 38 percent, with 16 percent of voters undecided.

The paper's coverage focuses on the perception that Bobby "has gained significant ground in his re-election bid over the past year," but that's not really the point. No doubt the numbers have fluctuated since last Novemer, but the real story here is that O'Malley maintains an impressive lead. Since the last poll, he's faced a controversy over Baltimore's crime statistics, repelled a state takeover of the city's school system in an affair that highlighted the horrible conditions of our public schools and stuck his head out on the electricty rate increase. Considering the poll found that schools and electricity are two of the top three concerns of voters, the poll indicates that O'Malley has passed some pretty tough tests and came out on top.

Interestingly, the poll also found that 55% of voters approve the way Ehrlich's handling the state's top job. Which means that, unlike most races, the election isn't a referendum on the incumbent. Voters aren't lining up behind O'Malley because they dislike Ehrlich; they're abandoning Ehrlich for O'Malley because they like the Mayor better.

from The League: Reassembled

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