Unanswered Questions in the Maryland Senate Race
The Post has an article today on the small controversy over Michael Steele's use of pictures of himself with prominent Maryland Democrats that were posted and then removed from the front page of his website. Democrats, in response, have put up their own website to begin the effort towards tying Steele to King George the W. Neither is much of a surprise. Steele has to make himself look moderate to have any chance of winning, despite the reality of his being completely out of line with Maryland on a whole host of issues, including but not limited to freedom of choice. Meanwhile, a central part of the strategy for any Democrat that wins the primary will be to label Steele for what he is - a conservative Republican with ties to the President. But there are still some unanswered questions in the race right now:
Whither the undecided Dems? While Kweisi Mfume has a lead over Ben Cardin, there is still a huge chunk of the primary electorate that hasn't made up their mind. They will end up deciding who wins, and if Ben Cardin can grab enough of them he will be able to overwhelm the more progressive part of Mfume's base. After all, Takoma Park is only so big...
Rales as a spoiler? Meanwhile, the TV ads that Josh Rales has managed to put up might start increasing his percentage of the vote from 1% to something approaching an overwhelming 5%. My hunch is, though, that those votes will come out of what would otherwise be Cardin voters, since moderates seem to be leaning towards Cardin, and progressives don't make a habit of voting for multimillionaires from Potomac.
Zeese as spoiler? Maryland should feel embarassed to have its own version of Ralph Nader this year. Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese will be running in the general, and if there is a close race we could see Florida in 2000 all over again. These guys still think they didn't swing that election (despite political reality and the laws of mathematics) and are making the same case Nader made - both parties are the same. Which I guess means that they honestly believe that Al Gore would have sole the country to oil companies, ignored congress and the law, started two wars, passed the Patriot Act, and generally screwed over the country. The question is whether Zeese is able to trick some progressive dems into voting for him, or if he will only get votes from the delusional activists on the far end of the spectrum.
Will national money pour in? With a number of threatened Senate incumbents on the Republican side, including Dewine in Ohio and Santorum up north in PA, it remains to be seen how deep Steele's pockets will go beyond what he currently has, and whether any Democratic challenger will have a source of funds after the primary ends. Cardin's going to spend his money trying to beat Mfume, and Mfume doesn't have any money to begin with.
In any case, there's a long, long road between now and November, and it's almost certain that we'll see some surprises, and a number of thrown oreos, along the way.
Whither the undecided Dems? While Kweisi Mfume has a lead over Ben Cardin, there is still a huge chunk of the primary electorate that hasn't made up their mind. They will end up deciding who wins, and if Ben Cardin can grab enough of them he will be able to overwhelm the more progressive part of Mfume's base. After all, Takoma Park is only so big...
Rales as a spoiler? Meanwhile, the TV ads that Josh Rales has managed to put up might start increasing his percentage of the vote from 1% to something approaching an overwhelming 5%. My hunch is, though, that those votes will come out of what would otherwise be Cardin voters, since moderates seem to be leaning towards Cardin, and progressives don't make a habit of voting for multimillionaires from Potomac.
Zeese as spoiler? Maryland should feel embarassed to have its own version of Ralph Nader this year. Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese will be running in the general, and if there is a close race we could see Florida in 2000 all over again. These guys still think they didn't swing that election (despite political reality and the laws of mathematics) and are making the same case Nader made - both parties are the same. Which I guess means that they honestly believe that Al Gore would have sole the country to oil companies, ignored congress and the law, started two wars, passed the Patriot Act, and generally screwed over the country. The question is whether Zeese is able to trick some progressive dems into voting for him, or if he will only get votes from the delusional activists on the far end of the spectrum.
Will national money pour in? With a number of threatened Senate incumbents on the Republican side, including Dewine in Ohio and Santorum up north in PA, it remains to be seen how deep Steele's pockets will go beyond what he currently has, and whether any Democratic challenger will have a source of funds after the primary ends. Cardin's going to spend his money trying to beat Mfume, and Mfume doesn't have any money to begin with.
In any case, there's a long, long road between now and November, and it's almost certain that we'll see some surprises, and a number of thrown oreos, along the way.
Originally posted at MoCoPolitics, Montgomery County's alternative source for political news and commentary.
posted by MoCoPolitics at 8:45 AM
7 Comments:
Check out www.Zeese.US has an interesting argument against the "spoiler" charge:
*RESPONDING TO THE STRAIGHT-JACKET OF THE TWO PARTY SYSTEM:* WHY VOTING
LESSER EVIL IS THROWING AWAY YOUR VOTE
Many deplore the Democrats for having no spine, but they should realize
they were put in power by voters who had no spine -- voters who were
afraid to vote for what they want -- or support financially or with
their time candidates with whom they agree.
The 'lesser evil' argument highlights the straight jacket of the two
party system that prevents people from voting for what they want. It
really treats voters like children. I know when my kids were growing
up,
if they wanted to do something I opposed, call it "C", I would say --
hey guys, why not do A or B. They thought they had a choice, but in
fact, I had already made the choice. That is, in essence, how the two
parties treat voters.
(it continues on the Zeese web site)
"Which I guess means that they honestly believe that Al Gore would have sole the country to oil companies, ignored congress and the law, started two wars, passed the Patriot Act, and generally screwed over the country."
Well, let's see--the Clinton Gore administration opposed the importation of generic AIDS drugs into Africa at the behest of the drug companies...but then I guess that's not selling out Americans, only Africans, who don't really count, do they? Hmmm, come to think of it, what did Clinton do to promote rnewable energy?
Clinton started two wars, as I recall--one without going to the UN. He would have invaded Haiti as well, if it weren't for the pesky ol' Jimmy Carter finding a peaceful way out.
The Patriot Act? Well, the Patriot Act passed the Senate by 89–11 and the House by 280–138. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought there were a good deal more Democrats than that.
Ignored the law? Well, you really don't need an answere on that one, do you?
I solicited a response from a Green Party activist I know.....
Why don't the Democrats who control the Maryland Legislature enact Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) and eliminate the whole "spoiler" threat? It is my understanding Del. Paul Pinsky has presented this bill year after year but the Dems won't even let it out of committee!
Greens will continue to run candidates against the "Republicrat" duopoly -- get used to it. (MD Greens are running more candidate in 2006 than ever before!)
I think you should stop whining and start supporting IRV!
Dave Goldsmith
Baltimore County Green Party Coordinator
and
(Proposed) Green Party Candidate for MD House of Delegates 11th District
Wow. I'm impressed with the acidity of some of these entries. That's one great thing about the internet - with anonymity comes the feeling that you can say anything. Even attack the person rather than the idea. So...
I've been communicating with Kevin Zeese since I posted this entry, and he does have some good points to make about corporate influence over the Democratic party. But I still think that without a system like Instant Runoff Voting, splitting the vote on the left hobbles us without any similar split on the right. In a winner takes all system, if all the progressive dems split for the greens, Republicans might be able to win in even incredibly liberal districts. So, great, pass Instant Runoff Voting. I'm all for it. But until it passes, I'd rather have someone like Martin O'Malley than someone like Bob Ehrlich. O'Malley ain't perfect, but he's better than the devil on the right.
As to Concerned: It's pretty ridiculous, don't you think, to describe the site as not being free simply because posters disagree with you, or to try to insult someone by questioning their understanding of American history (geekfest much?). But since you want to play, the two-party system formed almost immediately after the ratification of the constitution, and has continued under different names since then. Only in times of great turmoil has a third party risen to prominence (like the Republicans just before the civil war), and only when one of the two parties had completely collapsed (as the Whigs had, being consistently crushed by the pro-slavery Democrats). The reason I believe we have a two-party system is because we have a two party system, and have had one since the 1790s. That doesn't mean the current system can never change, but denying reality doesn't help.
And yes, I am well aware of the history of stolen elections in our country. That is, after all, how we got Jack Kennedy into the White House. But you do understand, right, that constantly harping about the electronic voting machines like they are about to cause armageddon makes you sound like a conspiracy theorist? It makes you less credible with ordinary voters, with the politicians in Annapolis, end even with people like me who agree with you. You can fight the fight without getting frantic.
It was out of line for me to use the word 'delusional' in the original posting. I still believe, with pretty good reasons I think, that Al Gore would have been a helluva lot better than King George the W. But, fellow lefties, just because I have a different belief about what strategy we should pursue does not mean I am stupid, or that I've been hijacked by the mainstream media. I thought that democracy and open discourse was one of the Green Party's planks? Yet I see posts like Concerned's pop up any time anyone questions the Green Party. Which, in the end, is one reason that the Green Party will not go mainstream any time soon...
I agree with the prior comments in favor of IRV, but the lack of civility here bothers me more.
Spirited disagreements are a given, including among the member contributors on this blog. I am not a clone of The League or OnBackground, for example, nor are they clones of each other. And we should apologize for serious differences of view, nor their clear expression here. But the personal attack has no place.
I understand the frustration of the Green Party posters here; I am a left-leaning Libertarian Party registered voter myself. But playing in the big leagues means acting with maturity.
About a decade ago, when Senator Phil Jimeno made a bad vote on ballot access, I ripped him a new one in the Annapolis Capital. My party chairman called me up and gently chided me for my tone. He was right, and I was wrong. Fortunately, Jimeno voted better in later years. Glad I did not go absolutely nuclear even if I was out of line. Using a softer tone, I was successful in getting all three of my delegates in the 11th District to go from opposition to ballot access reform.
Just a few thoughts.
Thanks to those who remind us that civil discourse is the only way we can have a blog that people want to read and participate in, and incidentally the only way we have a functional democracy. I've gone out of my way not to censor, edit, or control the discussion and I'd like your help to keep this site both civil and fully free.
above I meant "not apologize" sorry, bad blogger, no milkbone.
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