Monday, November 07, 2005

League on the Sun Poll

from The League: Reassembled

The Baltimore Sun recently released the results of a Potomac Inc. poll on the state gubernatorial race.

Both O'Malley and Ducan would beat Ehrlich in individual match-ups. O'Malley has a 15 point lead over the governor (48 - 33%) while Duncan would be ahead by 5 percentage points (42-37%).

Interestingly, although voters said they would choose either Democrat over the incumbent governor, Ehrlich's approval rating stands at 50%, with only 33% disapproving. In a state with 3-1 registration advantage for Democrats, Ehrlich's approval numbers are as high as could be expected.

So why would an electorate give Ehrlich high ratings yet boot him out of office? Andrew Green and David Nitkin's analysis points out that many Marylanders want a return to the Democratic control that has been a tradition in Maryland (and, coincidentally, helped make us one of the wealthiest states in the nation). In addition, Marylander's vehement disapproval of the Bush administration and national GOP do Republican Ehrlich a disservice.

Although these numbers are promising for Democrats, they only represent a snapshot of the political climate at one point in time. Voters could turn back to Ehrlich if national events turn the tide toward Republicans (absent a terrorist attack, that is unlikely) or Duncan's numbers could improve as his name recognition strengthens (much more likely).

from The League: Reassembled with revisions

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