Sounding the Alarm
Originally posted at MoCoPolitics.
All over the country, the Big Blue Wave is getting ready to crash down upon undefended Republican beachfront property. Jim Webb is ahead in Virginia, Harold Ford is neck and neck in Tennessee, Claire McCaskill is leading in Missouri, Bob Menendez is pulling away in New Jersey, and even Ned Lamont is back from the dead in Connecticut.
And don't even get me started on the House races. New races are being declared in play even as we speak, and the latest numbers are that as many as 75 Republican House seats are at risk. Despite my best efforts, I can't keep track of them all.
The one exception to the Big Blue Wave is right here in good 'ol MD. Yes, the Post puts O'Malley up 10 and Cardin up 11, but now word comes that the Baltimore Sun has O'Malley up 1, and a Cardin-Steele poll out tomorrow that nobody wants to talk about. And of course the Wayne Curry and the Curryettes thing is not going to help.
If Cardin and O'Malley had been up 10, they will most likely win despite the recent movement. If they were up 5-6, they will probably squeak by. If they were in fact up less than that, they will both likely lose given the current momentum. What an unbelievable embarrassment that will be, particularly if Cardin's loss ends up costing control of the U.S. Senate, which it very well might.
Neither statewide candidate has a particularly great GOTV operation going, at least that I can see here in Montgomery County. Both campaigns are being run pretty exclusively from Baltimore, despite the vote-rich DC suburbs being the target of opportunity. Commenters here have touted the Party's Coordinated Campaign -- I'm not impressed. The Coordinated Campaign is being ignored entirely by O'Malley and the folks in charge, while well-meaning, are completely over their heads. Local Montgomery County folks, knowledgeable about their local communities, are being ignored and pushed aside by inexperienced "campaign aides" who need a map to find their way around. The general expectation is that Cardin and O'Malley are both going to win, so a lot of the activity seems to be "see and be seen" rather than actual outreach and GOTV.
With six days to go, that needs to change. Momentum in both races is currently going the wrong way, and there is a lack of urgency that seems out of place with the circumstances.
Once again, I believe that the key to both these races is going to be Montgomery and Prince George's County turnout. In 2002, it doomed Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. It needs to be better, and it will be up to local MoCo folks to make it happen.
Get to it. There's not a lot of time left. Six days and counting.
All over the country, the Big Blue Wave is getting ready to crash down upon undefended Republican beachfront property. Jim Webb is ahead in Virginia, Harold Ford is neck and neck in Tennessee, Claire McCaskill is leading in Missouri, Bob Menendez is pulling away in New Jersey, and even Ned Lamont is back from the dead in Connecticut.
And don't even get me started on the House races. New races are being declared in play even as we speak, and the latest numbers are that as many as 75 Republican House seats are at risk. Despite my best efforts, I can't keep track of them all.
The one exception to the Big Blue Wave is right here in good 'ol MD. Yes, the Post puts O'Malley up 10 and Cardin up 11, but now word comes that the Baltimore Sun has O'Malley up 1, and a Cardin-Steele poll out tomorrow that nobody wants to talk about. And of course the Wayne Curry and the Curryettes thing is not going to help.
If Cardin and O'Malley had been up 10, they will most likely win despite the recent movement. If they were up 5-6, they will probably squeak by. If they were in fact up less than that, they will both likely lose given the current momentum. What an unbelievable embarrassment that will be, particularly if Cardin's loss ends up costing control of the U.S. Senate, which it very well might.
Neither statewide candidate has a particularly great GOTV operation going, at least that I can see here in Montgomery County. Both campaigns are being run pretty exclusively from Baltimore, despite the vote-rich DC suburbs being the target of opportunity. Commenters here have touted the Party's Coordinated Campaign -- I'm not impressed. The Coordinated Campaign is being ignored entirely by O'Malley and the folks in charge, while well-meaning, are completely over their heads. Local Montgomery County folks, knowledgeable about their local communities, are being ignored and pushed aside by inexperienced "campaign aides" who need a map to find their way around. The general expectation is that Cardin and O'Malley are both going to win, so a lot of the activity seems to be "see and be seen" rather than actual outreach and GOTV.
With six days to go, that needs to change. Momentum in both races is currently going the wrong way, and there is a lack of urgency that seems out of place with the circumstances.
Once again, I believe that the key to both these races is going to be Montgomery and Prince George's County turnout. In 2002, it doomed Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. It needs to be better, and it will be up to local MoCo folks to make it happen.
Get to it. There's not a lot of time left. Six days and counting.
posted by MoCoPolitics at 2:25 PM
5 Comments:
Not using local people. Isn't that how Lieberman got his ass kicked?
Ouch!
MoCo is a bit off here. One, the GOTV generally does not start until the last weekend. Two, there have been a couple of meetings of GOTV folks and precinct folks and candidates. Three, yes the GOTV is young but they are not in over their heads. MoCo is entitled to his/her opinion but I see it otherwise.
Kevin --
Starting GOTV the "last weekend" before an election is a proven recipe for losing. I really hope that the coordinated campaign's GOTV is not just starting this weekend. OTOH, that would explain the general absence of serious GOTV up to now.
Let's be clear -- GOTV is not just going door to door saying "hey, please vote, OK?" GOTV is about identifying your core voters as well as your secondary supporters, and making sure they all get out to vote. With the secondary voters, there must be an element of last-minute persuasion as well. If you're still ID'ing voters with less than a week to go before the election, you're in trouble.
Bottom line: good GOTV starts, not the last weekend, but weeks if not months beforehand.
The Democrat's have a coordinated campaign office in South Baltimore, but much of the statewide campaign is being run out of the party's Prince George's County headquarters at 4351 Garden City Dr. near the New Carrollton transit station.
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