Thursday, October 12, 2006

Polls, Polls, Everywhere!

Originally posted at MoCoPolitics.

No, no, not MY polls. Those are for fun.

I'm talking about THESE polls. They're fun, too, but they also have the benefit of being real.

And very recent. All polls discussed below (save one) are based on surveys done October 8-10.

And very valid, in the sense that they have a large number of respondents in each, at least 968. Many polls are done with less than half that number of respondents. The margins of error are therefore pretty low, +/- 3 or thereabouts.

And what these polls are saying can be summed up in one word: LANDSLIDE.

A few nuggets (all results from polls taken October 8-10 unless otherwise noted, all Democrats leading):

Arizona 1: Ellen Simon 50, incumbent Rick Renzi 46
Florida 13: Christine Jennings 47, Vern Buchanan 44 (open seat currently R)
Florida 16: Tim Mahoney 50, incumbent Mark Foley 43 (10/1)
Iowa 2: David Loebsack 48, incumbent Jim Leach 47
Indiana 2: Joe Donnelly 50, incumbent Chris Chocola 46
Minnesota 6: Patty Wetterling 50, Michele Bachman 45 (open seat currently R)
North Carolina 8: Larry Kissell 51, incumbent Robin Hayes 44
North Carolina 11: Heath Shuler 51, incumbent Charles Taylor 43
New Mexico 1: Patricia Madrid 52, incumbent Heather Wilson 44
New York 24: Michael Arcuri 53, Raymond Meier 42 (open seat currently R)
New York 26: Jack Davis 56, incumbent Tom Reynolds 40
Ohio 2: Victoria Wulsin 48, incumbent Jean Schmidt 45
Ohio 15: Mary Jo Kilroy 53, incumbent Deborah Pryce 41
Ohio 18: Zack Space 51, Joy Padgett 42 (open seat currently R)
Pennsylvania 6: Lois Murphy 52, incumbent Jim Gerlach 46
Pennsylvania 7: Joe Sestak 52, incumbent Curt Weldon 44
Wisconsin 8: Steve Kagen 48, John Gard 46 (open seat currently R)

Amazingly, those are just the races with Democrats leading. There are three other races polled this week that are tied (Colorado 7, Illinois 6 and Kentucky 3). Plus, there are 11 (!) other Republican-held races polled this week in which the Democrat is no more than 10 points behind. These include California 4, Connecticut 5, Idaho 1, Illinois 14 (Dennis Hastert's district!), Kentucky 4, Minnesota 1, New Jersey 7, New York 3, Virginia 2, Virginia 10, and Washington 8.

Remember, these are only the races that were polled THIS WEEK. The bottom line is that there isn't a single Republican with a race polled this week that can be termed safe.

Not a good time to be a Republican incumbent. Schadenfreude, indeed.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yo Moco: this is a Maryland collaborative blog. So, bring your MD stuff here and keep the national stuff off.

10/14/2006 11:56:00 AM  

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