Harford County Council Races
I currently see this set up for the Harford County Council:
[I'm mentioning races that are competitive, or what can be done to make them so. Races are described in the following method...]
[Race: (potential voting pattern)
Race description]
Council A: (Dem)
Guthrie has exponentially more cash-on hand than Biggs. Unless Biggs can tear apart Guthrie topic-to-topic (and Dion WILL delcare everything he had a hand in), District A will stay blue. Dion has a great word-of-mouth campaign and an equally good amount of Republican support; enough to overcome the undecided all voting for Biggs.
Council B: (Toss-up/Likely Republican)
Val Twanmoh has gone against Chenowith twice and is hoping, "...third time's the charm..." [actual quote]. Interesting factoid: Val gained 4,000+ more votes in 2002 than in 1998. If she repeats and gains HALF of that, she wins. She has a serious financial shortfall compared to Chenowith. Also consider Bittner, but not as a winner. The Green party can consistently cannibalized the Democratic vote. After 12 years with little to show for it except, "I have unfinished business..." Chenowith might have a fight on her hands.
Council C: (toss-up/too close to call)
There was MASSIVE voter apathy in the 2002 general election. Little over 16K votes with over 22K possible voters. This ALL depends on the GOTV efforts. Word has come to me that Morrissey-Ward is hungry for victory. Such candidates have won on sheer will alone. McMahan has what I consider a 'minor' cash advantage.
Council D (Toss-up/Lean Republican)
I can not go so far as to say that Chad Shrodes has a cash advantage, but it could be the only one he has. If any election has an obligatory popularity contest, this is probably it. Republicans call Shrodes the, "...Ultimate Switch-o-Crat..." and I haven't seen someone YET come forward to say "I like Terence Cox". A good ground campaign and GOTV effort will win this seat.
Council E (Lean Dem)
I call this a 'lean Dem' race only because of registration figures (which badly need to be updated). If Wheeler can get a good GOTV and convince some 'undeclared' voters to side with him, the race will be Wheeler's, despite Slutzky's $15,000 advantage.
Council F: (Likely Dem)
More dems than repubs voted in the primary by almost 2 to 1. Lisanti is driven and has actual motivation to win. Lisanti also has an easy-to-find website. I tried for five minutes to Google a Correri webpage and I did not find much. Mary Ann has a strong ground campaign and good HdG support. Correri needs to get a message out if he wants to win.
Council President: (Republican)
Now that Boniface is the clear competitor, White presently has a clear target. If White wants to make the race competitive, he has to step up fundraising (no candidate for this position can win without it), get a solid ground campaign, or find the world's best GOTV effort if he wants the Council President job. This is liable to be a very uphill race for White. Meanwhile, if Boniface doesn't want to lose his foothold, he must not accept developer contributions...or open his mouth. Boniface can in theory not say anything at all, or even lift a finger, or spend money to win Council President.
[I'm mentioning races that are competitive, or what can be done to make them so. Races are described in the following method...]
[Race: (potential voting pattern)
Race description]
Council A: (Dem)
Guthrie has exponentially more cash-on hand than Biggs. Unless Biggs can tear apart Guthrie topic-to-topic (and Dion WILL delcare everything he had a hand in), District A will stay blue. Dion has a great word-of-mouth campaign and an equally good amount of Republican support; enough to overcome the undecided all voting for Biggs.
Council B: (Toss-up/Likely Republican)
Val Twanmoh has gone against Chenowith twice and is hoping, "...third time's the charm..." [actual quote]. Interesting factoid: Val gained 4,000+ more votes in 2002 than in 1998. If she repeats and gains HALF of that, she wins. She has a serious financial shortfall compared to Chenowith. Also consider Bittner, but not as a winner. The Green party can consistently cannibalized the Democratic vote. After 12 years with little to show for it except, "I have unfinished business..." Chenowith might have a fight on her hands.
Council C: (toss-up/too close to call)
There was MASSIVE voter apathy in the 2002 general election. Little over 16K votes with over 22K possible voters. This ALL depends on the GOTV efforts. Word has come to me that Morrissey-Ward is hungry for victory. Such candidates have won on sheer will alone. McMahan has what I consider a 'minor' cash advantage.
Council D (Toss-up/Lean Republican)
I can not go so far as to say that Chad Shrodes has a cash advantage, but it could be the only one he has. If any election has an obligatory popularity contest, this is probably it. Republicans call Shrodes the, "...Ultimate Switch-o-Crat..." and I haven't seen someone YET come forward to say "I like Terence Cox". A good ground campaign and GOTV effort will win this seat.
Council E (Lean Dem)
I call this a 'lean Dem' race only because of registration figures (which badly need to be updated). If Wheeler can get a good GOTV and convince some 'undeclared' voters to side with him, the race will be Wheeler's, despite Slutzky's $15,000 advantage.
Council F: (Likely Dem)
More dems than repubs voted in the primary by almost 2 to 1. Lisanti is driven and has actual motivation to win. Lisanti also has an easy-to-find website. I tried for five minutes to Google a Correri webpage and I did not find much. Mary Ann has a strong ground campaign and good HdG support. Correri needs to get a message out if he wants to win.
Council President: (Republican)
Now that Boniface is the clear competitor, White presently has a clear target. If White wants to make the race competitive, he has to step up fundraising (no candidate for this position can win without it), get a solid ground campaign, or find the world's best GOTV effort if he wants the Council President job. This is liable to be a very uphill race for White. Meanwhile, if Boniface doesn't want to lose his foothold, he must not accept developer contributions...or open his mouth. Boniface can in theory not say anything at all, or even lift a finger, or spend money to win Council President.
posted by Geoff at 1:32 PM
3 Comments:
What about the Democrat who is cannibalizing the Green vote in Anne Arundel county District 7?
This was the races for Harford County Council. If I lived in Anne Arundel, I'd feel qualified to write about that. Any comment I do make would be from someone who doesn't know the layout of that area. That would do AA county a disservice.
But you did just make a blanket statement about Green Party cannibalizing the Democrat's votes (as if any particular party or individual "owns" someone's votes). To my knowledge, no Green has run for County office in Harford, so perhaps you should wait until after the election to pass judgement on the Green Party's candidate?
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